DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/04 11:14
Corn, Wheat Down at Midday
Soybeans are the leader at midday with corn and wheat slightly lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow index up 60. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude $0.10 lower. Livestock trade is higher. Precious
metals are mixed with gold up $15.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday as trade continues to drift
sideways to lower with continued chart pressure and positive weather dragging
on the market. Ethanol margins remain solid with board margins improving
further due to slipping corn and firming energy markets. The western corn belt
will likely make limited progress this week with wet weather forecasted, but
the progress made last week should catch planting progress back up to average
or a little better with 44-49% expected in the ground and some expecting 50%+
on the report this afternoon. The weekly export inspections remained strong at
1.051 million metric tons. On the July chart we put in a new low for the move
at $3.60 3/4 which is support with $3.46 3/4 the next level below that which is
the contract low printed on October 1. Resistance is at the 10-day moving
average at $3.69.
Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with commercial buying
supporting trade early on today. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is 90 to 100
points higher. Planting progress should be close to average on the report, but
the western belt will be slowed this week. The weekly export inspections were
soft at 172,066 metric tons. Similar to the past few weeks, selling interest is
expected on light bounces. On the July chart support is at the $9.49 April and
six-month low with resistance at the lowest major moving average at $9.71 1/2,
the 20-day, which we are above at midday.
Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday across the three contracts with
pressure from the stronger dollar, weaker corn trade, and rains on the plains.
Ongoing demand remains a concern with the strength on the dollar, and export
inspections were mediocre at 325,390 metric tons. The crop condition report is
expected to show steady conditions with maturity near average. Spring wheat
planting is expected to remain well above normal, with emergence ahead of
normal. The July Kansas City contract has chart resistance at the 10-day moving
average at $5.07, and support is at the contract low printed last week of $4.89
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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