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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/03 11:14

   Grain Trade Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday but is off the early lows. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 50 points. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Energies are 
lower with crude oil down $1.00. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $5.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing off the early 
lows. Now the market is looking for a trading range heading toward the August 
USDA supply and demand numbers due out on Wednesday August 12th. Weather 
remains non-threatening in the near term, and crop progress is expected to show 
steady to slightly better conditions, with maturity near normal. The weekly 
export inspections were decent at 920,708 metric tons. Chart direction remains 
down, but the momentum has slowed towards the end of the week. On the December 
chart corn resistance is in the $3.97 area where we find the 10-, 50-, and 
100-day moving averages. Support is at the $3.75 low printed overnight then the 
$3.62 1/2 contract low.   

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with selling tied to generally 
commodity liquidation and good weather as the key reproductive period starts. 
Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower.  The weekly export 
inspections were soft at 148,498. The weekly crop progress report is expected 
to show steady to slightly better conditions with maturity slightly behind the 
average pace. Good weather can add soybean yield well into September so 
forecasts should continue to be the most important market directional indicator 
looking to next week. On the November chart support is the contract lows at 
$8.95. Resistance is the 100-day moving average at $9.55. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with 
the generally commodity weakness and the strong dollar encouraging selling with 
the Kansas City contract making fresh lows this morning. We are $1.25 below the 
high reached a month ago. Exports have improved the last couple of weeks but 
world supplies and the strong dollar have kept the lid on bounces. The weekly 
export inspections were disappointing at 298,048 metric tons. The weekly crop 
progress report is expected to show winter wheat harvest nearly complete, and 
spring wheat conditions steady, and harvest slightly ahead of the average pace. 
On the September Kansas City wheat chart support is the fresh low at 4.81 with 
the 10-day moving average resistance at $5.02. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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