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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/20 11:51

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   There is again mixed midday strength, but today corn is inching to new 
6-month highs at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 69. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 11 points lower. Energies 
are higher with crude up $1.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are 
higher with gold up $2.  

   CORN

   Corn trade at new highs for the move at midday with futures up 2 to 3 cents; 
it is still a slow day with a daily range under a nickel. It is likely going to 
get volatile before the day is over. Buy stops are above our midday prices with 
the potential for a more major trend shift. No granted many traders question 
the need for an upside move, but trade volume will determine where we go this 
afternoon and early next week, not ideas. Obviously Argentine weather forecasts 
remain on the forefront of market news getting paid attention to. There is 
reason for concern therefore the market does not appear to want to give back 
gains today. The weekly export sales number was also supportive this morning at 
1.367 million tons. President Trump is speaking to the nation here at midday 
which appears to be friendly for corn. On the March corn chart support is at 
the $3.60 10-day moving average with resistance at the $3.70 200-day moving 
average. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 1 cent higher, meal is up $1.50 and bean oil is down 10-15 
points at midday. Overnight up to midday trade has been mostly lower, down as 
much as a dime at one time, so momentum is firm at midday. The weakness 
overnight was noted as light long profit taking again. The weekly export sales 
were good at 979,600 tons for beans, 269,800 tons of meal and 41,500 tons of 
soybean oil. Beans have not challenged the new high for the move printed this 
week but we have not given back much of the added weather premium added this 
week. That favors a friendly weekly close which gives the risk of short 
covering this afternoon. Weather forecasts and weekend weather will give us 
direction next week. On the March soybean chart support is at the 10-day and 
highest major moving average at $10.37; resistance is at the $10.80 6-month 
high. The next level of resistance would be the $11 area; then the March 
futures high last June at $11.35. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 to 7 lower at midday with Minneapolis seeing the most 
pressure due to noted long profit taking. The weekly export sales were poor at 
242,500 tons keeping demand news bearish for wheat. The Minneapolis contract 
remains more dynamic and has the most room to correct. The March KC $4.43 
10-day moving average was support which the futures dropped down to yesterday 
then below it today so this is now resistance then the $4.58 200-day. Support 
is a the $4.28 100-day moving average.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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