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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/04 11:14

   Corn, Wheat Down at Midday

   Soybeans are the leader at midday with corn and wheat slightly lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow index up 60. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude $0.10 lower. Livestock trade is higher. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up $15.


   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday as trade continues to drift 
sideways to lower with continued chart pressure and positive weather dragging 
on the market. Ethanol margins remain solid with board margins improving 
further due to slipping corn and firming energy markets. The western corn belt 
will likely make limited progress this week with wet weather forecasted, but 
the progress made last week should catch planting progress back up to average 
or a little better with 44-49% expected in the ground and some expecting 50%+ 
on the report this afternoon. The weekly export inspections remained strong at 
1.051 million metric tons. On the July chart we put in a new low for the move 
at $3.60 3/4 which is support with $3.46 3/4 the next level below that which is 
the contract low printed on October 1. Resistance is at the 10-day moving 
average at $3.69. 


   Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with commercial buying 
supporting trade early on today. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is 90 to 100 
points higher. Planting progress should be close to average on the report, but 
the western belt will be slowed this week. The weekly export inspections were 
soft at 172,066 metric tons. Similar to the past few weeks, selling interest is 
expected on light bounces.  On the July chart support is at the $9.49 April and 
six-month low with resistance at the lowest major moving average at $9.71 1/2, 
the 20-day, which we are above at midday.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday across the three contracts with 
pressure from the stronger dollar, weaker corn trade, and rains on the plains. 
Ongoing demand remains a concern with the strength on the dollar, and export 
inspections were mediocre at 325,390 metric tons. The crop condition report is 
expected to show steady conditions with maturity near average. Spring wheat 
planting is expected to remain well above normal, with emergence ahead of 
normal. The July Kansas City contract has chart resistance at the 10-day moving 
average at $5.07, and support is at the contract low printed last week of $4.89 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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