DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/19 11:19
Most Grain Trade Higher at Midday
Similar to midday on Tuesday, trade is higher across the board but off our
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 25 points.
The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 15 higher.
Energies are mostly higher with crude up 0.65. Livestock trade is mostly
higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.10.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade coming off some
double digit gains. Concerns on near term heat working in the next couple of
days is noted for the higher trade as well as mixed longer term outlooks. Some
rains have visited the dry areas of the western belt but overall coverage is
still short for many areas; we are in the middle of pollination this week. The
weekly ethanol report showed production up 1.89%, stocks up 4.51% and gasoline
demand down 2 percentage points, which has ethanol futures lower at midday
which may continue to pull down on corn futures this afternoon. On the December
chart support is the $3.91 20- and 50-day moving averages, then resistance is
the $3.98 10-day which we trade above this morning but have failed to hold so
Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents higher at midday with the near term trade
continuing to consolidate above the $10.00 area. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher,
and 20 to 30 higher. Trade will continue to look to extended forecast for the
reproductive season for guidance coming forward with some longer term models
hinting as eastern belt ridging in August. China is expected to remain active
for forward pricing in the near term. On the November chart support is at the
200-day moving average at $9.84 with resistance at the 10-day at $10.12 which
we are just below at midday, with last week's highs at $10.47 as the higher
Wheat trade is 2 lower to 5 higher with the Minneapolis trade leading again
at midday with quieter trade as winter wheat fails to hold much buying. Spread
trade remains very soft for the winter wheat, and spring wheat went back to a
small carry last week, with mostly steady trade this morning. Most world export
business remains focused on the Black Sea area, with the dollar remaining at
the lower end of the range which bodes well for US business down the road.
Australia continues to see dryness, raising concerns for production in the
coming months. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at
$5.07 with the 20-day at $5.42 resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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