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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/19 11:19

   Most Grain Trade Higher at Midday

   Similar to midday on Tuesday, trade is higher across the board but off our 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 25 points. 
The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 15 higher. 
Energies are mostly higher with crude up 0.65. Livestock trade is mostly 
higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.10.


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade coming off some 
double digit gains. Concerns on near term heat working in the next couple of 
days is noted for the higher trade as well as mixed longer term outlooks. Some 
rains have visited the dry areas of the western belt but overall coverage is 
still short for many areas; we are in the middle of pollination this week. The 
weekly ethanol report showed production up 1.89%, stocks up 4.51% and gasoline 
demand down 2 percentage points, which has ethanol futures lower at midday 
which may continue to pull down on corn futures this afternoon. On the December 
chart support is the $3.91 20- and 50-day moving averages, then resistance is 
the $3.98 10-day which we trade above this morning but have failed to hold so 


   Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents higher at midday with the near term trade 
continuing to consolidate above the $10.00 area. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher, 
and 20 to 30 higher. Trade will continue to look to extended forecast for the 
reproductive season for guidance coming forward with some longer term models 
hinting as eastern belt ridging in August. China is expected to remain active 
for forward pricing in the near term. On the November chart support is at the 
200-day moving average at $9.84 with resistance at the 10-day at $10.12 which 
we are just below at midday, with last week's highs at $10.47 as the higher 
resistance levels.


   Wheat trade is 2 lower to 5 higher with the Minneapolis trade leading again 
at midday with quieter trade as winter wheat fails to hold much buying. Spread 
trade remains very soft for the winter wheat, and spring wheat went back to a 
small carry last week, with mostly steady trade this morning. Most world export 
business remains focused on the Black Sea area, with the dollar remaining at 
the lower end of the range which bodes well for US business down the road. 
Australia continues to see dryness, raising concerns for production in the 
coming months. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at 
$5.07 with the 20-day at $5.42 resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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