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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/16 11:20

   Beans, Corn Higher at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents higher, and wheat is 
10 to 13 cents lower.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 90 points. The dollar 
index is 10 points lower. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are 
mostly weaker with crude down $0.10. Livestock trade is higher with hogs 
leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $7.00.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade trying to sustain 
buying after the struggles this week. The forecast continues to show better 
rains with warmer than normal temps for most. The ethanol margins look to 
narrow coming forward with concerns about gasoline demand persisting. Weekly 
export sales were good at 981,000 metric tons of old crop, and 655,400 of new 
crop. On the September contract, trade continues to have resistance at the gap 
level from Sunday night at $3.36, with the lower Bollinger band at $3.16.


   Soybean trade is 7 to 8 cents higher with trade working higher on expected 
further export business and short covering along with sales of 873,000 metric 
tons on the daily wire, mostly to China. Meal was $0.50 to $1.50 higher, with 
oil 30 to 40 points higher. June soybean crush was 167 million bushels, about 5 
million above expectations. The ral remains at the midpoint of the recent 
range vs. the dollar. Weekly export sales were OK with 313,000 metric tons of 
old crop, and 767,700 metric tons, meal was 177,200 of old, 27,800 of new, and 
5,700 of oil. Weather looks fairly non-threating near term. The August chart 
now has support at the 20-day at $8.80 which we got back above yesterday, with 
the upper Bollinger Band at $9.04 as resistance.


   Wheat trade is 11 to 13 cents lower overnight with profit taking in Chicago 
action notable after the big run this week, and no announcement of the rumored 
SRW sales. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with Black Sea 
wheat still winning tenders while yield concerns linger. Kansas City is at an 
90-cent discount to Chicago with spreads sharply wider the last four days, 
while Minneapolis is back to a 21 cent discount. Weekly export sales were 
strong at 764,400 metric tons Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.41, 
with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.55 which we failed to hold this morning.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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