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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/03 11:15

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Mixed midday trade for grains illustrates that sideways action may continue 
well into March.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with Dow futures down 110 
points. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up $.40. Livestock trade is lower. Precious 
metals are lower with gold down $6.


   Corn futures are a penny higher at midday; the range has been equally mixed 
trading from around 3 lower to 3 higher. A May contract move above $3.96 or 
below $3.85 (Friday's range) may see some chart follow-though; this would be 
due to the inside day Monday. Trade the past 6 weeks has hinted more toward 
slower sideways action this month; and that appears to be what is going on 
Tuesday. Ethanol margins remain strong for blenders with the unleaded gasoline 
premium to ethanol increasing, but producer margins remain tight. Ethanol 
futures are higher for the third day, so this is showing a little more support 
for producer margins. The May futures' late January low of $3.73 3/4 is key 
long-term support with resistance at the $3.99-$4.03 area where we find the 
50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 10-day, 20-day, and 100-day moving 
averages are all clustered around $3.90, and the market has chopped on both 
sides of this level as of midday. A lower close could always trigger some long 
fund liquidation or fresh chart selling following the $3.88 close on Monday. 


   Soybean futures are 5 to 8 cents lower at midday with meal $4 to $5 lower 
and oil 10 to 20 points higher. The market rejection of the higher move Sunday 
night illustrates selling interest around our recent highs. The trucker strike 
in Brazil looks to be waning, which should limit interest in buying interest 
from the U.S. on delay potential. On the May soybean chart resistance is at the 
$10.13 10-day; the $9.98 20-day level is support. The 200-day up at $10.68 and 
would be a more major chart resistance level. The trade has tested the $10.00 
level but we appear to have found support like we did last week.  


   Wheat futures are 3 to 6 higher at midday and appear to have some light 
upside momentum in play across the three contracts. Selling interest was light 
around the contract lows so trade is bouncing off those levels to our midday 
strength may be short profit-taking. The dollar has remained near the higher 
end of the range/multi-year highs keeping real export interest lighter than our 
prices in dollar terms may illustrate. The shift into spring will bring further 
debate about crop conditions in the U.S. and the Black Sea areas. On the May KC 
chart the market is below all major moving averages with the $5.37 10-day 
nearby resistance.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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