DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/27 11:50
Soybeans Double Digits Higher at Midday
Trade is mixed with soybeans leading the charge at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 265
points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 161 points
higher. Energies are lower with crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed.
Precious metals are higher with gold up $3.30.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with light buying after rains
disappointed in some areas over the weekend while the wheat market and strong
dollar weighs on the trade. The forecast remains cool over the next week with
limited rain for the center of the belt, and trade will position more for the
planted acres report on the 30th that will keep trade active. The weekly
progress and conditions report is expected to show a slight decline on
conditions with progress slightly ahead of normal. The weekly export
inspections were good at 1.451 million metric tons. On the December chart
support is at the $3.90 3/4 100-day then the $3.82 1/2 low printed early today.
Resistance is the 200-day moving at $3.96, which we are just back above at
Soybean trade is 26 to 32 cents higher at midday with active buying
returning overnight with the front month contracts leading again. Meal is $7 to
$8 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The market is expecting an acreage
increase on the June 30 Planting Intentions report, which should help to keep
trade defensive ahead of the report to some degree. Weather looks to bring rain
to double-crop areas while other areas look to struggle again this week,
albeit with cooler weather. The weekly conditions and progress report should be
slightly lower with emergence complete for first crop. The weekly export
inspections were inline with expectations at 272,066 metric tons. On the
November soybean chart support is at the 50-day at $10.62, resistance is at the
20-day at 11.17.
Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with harvest pressure and the
sharply stronger dollar overcoming the row crop support. Rains should have
slowed harvest in areas of Kansas, but overall progress remains pretty good
with some yields pushing triple digits even on dryland in north-central Kansas.
Growing concerns about crop conditions are picking up in the Red River Valley
which should be reflected on the conditions report today after a 3% drop last
week with progress well ahead of normal. The weekly export inspections were
improved at 511,071 metric tons. On the July Kansas City chart the 10-day and
lowest major moving average is resistance at $4.42 with support at the $4.15
fresh contract low.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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